Paper
Travel Demand Forecasting Using UK TRICS Database
- Authors:
- Firas H. A. Asad
- Abstract
- Travel demand forecasting has become the target of increasing interest from both transport planners and engineers. It not only contributes primarily to sustainable city planning strategies, but is also an effective tool for quantifying transport impacts of new developments. This paper considers an alternative methodology to forecast residential trip demand using the UK TRICS database as the primary resource. The traditional category analysis approach seeks to classify historic travel surveys into categories determined by land use and other influential characteristics. By analysing trip rate variation for residential sites with different characteristics, this paper proposes a new classification system, which clearly represents differences in trip rates and optimises the value of the data. This new classification system (compared to that accomplished via TRICS groupings) simply partitions residential zones into those which are predominantly comprised of flats and houses. Travel models have been developed based on these two groups. These models allow forecasting of proposed residential sites. This paper confirms the importance of observed trip generation data, such as that provided by TRICS, as a valuable resource upon which travel forecasts can be based. In addition, this paper encourages the use of alternative methodologies including reclassification of sites and the adoption of regression techniques in order to improve validity of results.
- Keywords
- ANOVA; Land Use; Trip Rates; Trip Generation; Regression Models
- StartPage
- 98
- EndPage
- 107
- Doi
- 10.18005/ITUP0303005